Door Johannes Visser - On February 22nd, Marco Hekkens provided a presentation to the JASON Institute and its invitees about his personal and highly ambitious study into the Future Urban Extreme Littoral Land (FUEL-L) environment. This study, which – among other things – aims to paint an all-encompassing picture of future security challenges in urbanized areas near the sea, has the potential to yield a rich and useful account on the subject – if it manages to keep a clear overview of the many interrelated facets that typify these highly complex areas.

The starting point of FUEL-L is that littoral areas are becoming increasingly important, since food and fuel supplies, merchandise and industrial production are directly or indirectly sea-bounded, and because of the continuing flow of migrants into the mega-metropolises near the coasts. Although city landscapes may stir the minds of many, cities are often associated with environmental degradation, squalor, poverty and crime, leading to (varying degrees of) security risks. Add to this the escalation of asymmetric violence and conflict at sea, a symptom which in particular troubles the African-Asian-Pacific regions. The question is thus whether national or city authorities will be up to the task of managing these risks, or will need to muster the necessary military forces (domestic or foreign) for indirect assistance and engagement.

It is in this latter case that Mr Hekkens brings to the table years of practical expertise and experience. His vision is one of a ‘seamless transition across the environments’: in control of, and moving back and forth between the coastal waters and areas further inland, and then back again when needed. Western maritime forces may already be well equipped to carry such missions into effect, but the focus of this study will also be to identify the ‘decisive conditions and capabilities’ and the ‘supporting effects’ necessary for sustaining any engagement mission from the sea base. If successful, valuable insights will be gained to better prepare for future civilian-military engagement.

Since contextual awareness is everything, a wide array of factors must be taken into account. FUEL-L appears eager to cover them all: from subterranean infrastructure to geographical obstacles; natural disasters; public health; mass transportation; crime; the media and cyber warfare; socio-economic considerations; historical, religious and cultural boundaries; and even entertainment trends. The range of what is called ‘engagement space’ is seemingly inexhaustible. Furthermore, all of these factors may correlate differently with regard to various kinds of mission mandates, threat scenarios and environmental realities. As a result, the military cannot by any means achieve success on its own, but will need to cooperate closely with civilian agencies to avoid mission creep and overlap, as well as sovereignty issues.

The pursuit of mapping out all about everything is audacious, but its results are likely to evoke a host of new questions. This is due primarily to the sheer enormity and complexity of the natural and social world, and the exponentially changing nature of the latter. Similarly, some of the assumptions underlying the investigation are bound to be ambiguous, as is the case with most if not all social research. The supposition of the “Chaos of the Littorals” (coined by Maj. Gen. Myatt of the US Marine Corps) is a powerful message but must be read and balanced against regional realities, since most Asian cities along the Indian Ocean and Pacific, even when struggling with the basic tenets of governance, seem to be well in control of their populations’ security. And although the strategic importance of littoral urban areas should not be underestimated, (recent) history shows that military and militant conflicts take place at least as often in the more landlocked territories as in coastal areas. The former are often inhospitable and ungovernable zones grises, where serious problems emanate from trafficking to terrorism.

This is not to say that accumulating a great deal of knowledge about the urbanized littoral cannot be of meaningful value. In fact, the findings of FUEL-L might as well turn out to be up for consultation by city administrators looking to prevent urban crises in the future. Certainly a case to watch is Rio de Janeiro, which is plagued by numerous social ills, and is scheduled to organize two major sporting events in 2014 and 2016.

A thousand mile journey begins with the first step indeed. Mr Hekkens is wise to reach out to knowledgeable co-thinkers on this trip; and the JASON Institute is certainly willing and able to assist him on the way.

Colonel Hekkens currently serves as Deputy Commander Netherlands Maritime Force and Commander Landing Force. Since January 2010 he has been on standby as Deputy Force Commander and Senior National Representative for the combined United Kingdom / Netherlands European Battlegroup rotation 2010/1.

Click here for a 'curtain raiser' on FUEL-L.

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